Oregon

Governor’s race · Oregon

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 78% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.3%

Tina Kotek, incumbent
Republican 45.7%

Christine Drazan
Other 4.0%

Brett Smith Pacific Green

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Oregon	50.3%	45.7%	4.0%
National averageUnited States	49.5%+0.8	46.9%−1.2	3.6%+0.4

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

7 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Gbao	1–Oct 4, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 42	See the poll
Dhm Research The Oregonian/OregonLive	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	549	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 44	See the poll
Dhm Research Oregon Public Broadcasting	17–Sep 27, 2026	915	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 46	See the poll
Dhm Research Grow Oregon	3–Sep 9, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 43	See the poll
Public Opinion Strategies	22–Jun 24, 2026	600	registered voters	Republican 48 Democrat 44	See the poll
Hoffman Research Group	11–May 12, 2026	603	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 45	See the poll
Fm3 Research Charlie Health	Jan 28, 2026 – Feb 4, 2026	1,065	likely voters	Democrat 45 Republican 40	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Tina Kotek · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Tina Kotek
source
Other Challenger

Brett Smith
source
Republican Challenger

Christine Drazan
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 3.4 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 6.4 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026