Arkansas

Governor’s race · Arkansas

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 54.3%

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, incumbent
Democrat 34.9%

Fredrick Love
Other 10.8%

Colt Shelby Libertarian

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Arkansas	54.3%	34.9%	10.8%
National averageUnited States	46.9%+7.3	49.5%−14.6	3.6%+7.3

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

2 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics	8–Oct 13, 2026	709	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 32 Independent and others 11	See the poll
Hendrix College Talk Business & Politics	11–Aug 12, 2026	1,217	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 40 Independent and others 7	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Sarah Huckabee Sanders · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Sarah Huckabee Sanders
source
Democrat Challenger

Fredrick Love
source
Other Challenger

Colt Shelby
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 27.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.6 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026