Minnesota

Governor’s race · Minnesota

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 53.5%

Amy Klobuchar
Republican 45.0%

Lisa Demuth
Other 1.5%

Steven Young Green

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Minnesota	53.5%	45.0%	1.5%
National averageUnited States	49.5%+4.0	46.9%−1.9	3.6%−2.1

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

12 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	9–Oct 12, 2026	718	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Morning Consult The Daily Agenda	2–Oct 7, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 39	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE 11 \| Minnesota Star Tribune	5–Oct 7, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 41	See the poll
Co/Efficient	14–Sep 15, 2026	833	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 45	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	9–Sep 14, 2026	654	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 40	See the poll
Tipp Insights League of American Workers	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 2, 2026	1,192	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 37	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	13–Aug 17, 2026	661	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 36	See the poll
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. KARE-TV \| Minnesota Star Tribune \| U. of Minnesota Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication	8–Jun 10, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 40	See the poll
Emerson College	6–Feb 8, 2026	1,000	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 38	See the poll
Surveyusa KAAL-TV \| KSTP-TV Minneapolis \| WDIO-TV Duluth	27–Jan 30, 2026	575	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 34	See the poll
Rmg Research Alpha News	10–Dec 16, 2025	800	registered voters	Republican 46 Democrat 40	See the poll
Surveyusa KSTP-TV Minneapolis	15–Sep 18, 2025	568	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 38	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Tim Walz · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Amy Klobuchar
source
Other Open seat

Steven Young
source
Republican Open seat

Lisa Demuth
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 7.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 9.0 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026