Forecast comparison
Who else forecasts the 2026 governor races, and where do they stand?
Every forecaster still publishing on the 2026 midterms, in one place, with our own number beside the ones we are allowed to carry. This is a comparison, not a ranking.
Our forecast
- Democratic control
- 59.9%
- Projected seats
- 26.2 D · 23.8 R
as of October 23, 2026 · unchanged since October 22, 2026
Chance that Democrats control it, side by side
Each bar is one forecaster’s published probability. The dotted line is 50%.
- Kalshi 73.9%
- ElectIndex 72.0%
- Vote-Scope (ours) 59.9%
How solid the races are
Races sorted from solid Democratic to solid Republican. Ours in seven levels; expert ratings as published.
What the other forecasters currently say
Each one’s own published headline figure, attributed and linked. We report what they publish; none of it enters our model, and we reproduce none of their underlying data.
Probabilistic models
- ElectIndex 72.0%
Expert ratings — categories, not probabilities
- Cook Political Report 18 lean D · 4 toss-up · 14 lean R
- Decision Desk HQ 20 lean D · 2 toss-up · 14 lean R
Prediction markets
- Kalshi 73.9%
Other forecasts worth checking
They publish a forecast too. Their numbers are not carried here; follow the link.
Independent comparison. Vote-Scope is not affiliated with, or endorsed by, any forecaster listed here. Every third-party forecast remains the property of its publisher and is linked to its original page. Methodologies differ: a model states a probability, an expert rating states a category, and an exchange states a price.
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