British Columbia Forecast
VOTE-SCOPE FORECAST · PROPRIETARY PROJECTION · EXCLUSIVE ADJUSTMENTS
RACE BOARD · RUN 2026-10-04
Conservative Party of BC: 52 seats.
46 polls · BSTS (MCMC) · 50,000 simulations · our exclusive read of the race
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
Current Legislative Assembly Composition
Seats — 93 total
- BC NDP 47
- Conservative Party of BC 36
- Independents 3
- BC Greens 2
- OneBC 2
- CentreBC 1
- Vacant 2
Seat projection
- Vote
- 40.9%
- P(majority)
- 73%
- P(largest)
- 85%
- Vote
- 39.0%
- P(majority)
- 12%
- P(largest)
- 15%
- Vote
- 11.0%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
- Vote
- 3.5%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
- Vote
- 3.3%
- P(majority)
- 0%
- P(largest)
- 0%
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Probability of winning a majority or finishing strictly first, across the 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the election, drawn from the BSTS distribution.
Riding map
Color = projected leading party. Hover a riding for details.
All ridings
Sort and filter the 93 ridings by projected winning party, margin and probability.
| Riding | Prov. | Projection | Vote% | Margin | P(win) | vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surrey-Fleetwood | BC | BC NDP | 42.9% | 2.0% | 58% | Hold |
| Cowichan Valley | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 35.9% | 2.0% | 54% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Vancouver-Langara | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 43.0% | 2.0% | 62% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 46.2% | 2.3% | 72% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Richmond-Steveston | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 42.6% | 2.3% | 67% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Surrey City Centre | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 43.0% | 2.4% | 73% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Vernon-Lumby | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.6% | 2.7% | 72% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Juan de Fuca-Malahat | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 36.2% | 3.0% | 85% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Surrey-Guildford | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.7% | 3.3% | 88% | BC NDP → Conservative Party of BC |
| Vancouver-Yaletown | BC | BC NDP | 43.7% | 3.4% | 91% | Hold |
| Courtenay-Comox | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 36.9% | 3.6% | 91% | Hold |
| Maple Ridge East | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.2% | 3.7% | 92% | Hold |
| Ladysmith-Oceanside | BC | BC NDP | 41.8% | 3.7% | 88% | Hold |
| Kelowna Centre | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 43.2% | 3.8% | 90% | Hold |
| Surrey-Panorama | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 47.2% | 4.7% | 96% | Hold |
| Burnaby South-Metrotown | BC | BC NDP | 44.2% | 4.7% | 96% | Hold |
| Penticton-Summerland | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 43.1% | 4.8% | 95% | Hold |
| Surrey-Newton | BC | BC NDP | 46.0% | 5.1% | 98% | Hold |
| Surrey-Cloverdale | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 41.1% | 5.3% | 99% | Hold |
| North Island | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.6% | 5.3% | 98% | Hold |
| Kootenay Central | BC | BC NDP | 37.3% | 5.3% | 97% | Hold |
| Surrey-Serpentine River | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 47.2% | 5.3% | 98% | Hold |
| Mid Island-Pacific Rim | BC | BC NDP | 43.5% | 6.2% | 99% | Hold |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | BC | BC NDP | 42.6% | 6.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows | BC | BC NDP | 48.9% | 6.6% | 99% | Hold |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 44.7% | 6.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Langley-Willowbrook | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 45.5% | 6.9% | 100% | Hold |
| West Vancouver-Sea to Sky | BC | BC Greens | 40.1% | 7.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Burnaby North | BC | BC NDP | 48.0% | 7.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Langley-Walnut Grove | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 47.0% | 7.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Burnaby East | BC | BC NDP | 46.3% | 8.2% | 100% | Hold |
| Port Moody-Burquitlam | BC | BC NDP | 46.4% | 8.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Boundary-Similkameen | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 46.0% | 8.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Nanaimo-Lantzville | BC | BC NDP | 46.1% | 9.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Coquitlam-Maillardville | BC | BC NDP | 46.7% | 9.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Delta North | BC | BC NDP | 47.3% | 9.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Skeena | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.1% | 9.7% | 100% | Hold |
| Richmond-Queensborough | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.3% | 9.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Surrey-White Rock | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 49.8% | 10.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Kootenay-Monashee | BC | BC NDP | 47.0% | 10.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Saanich North and the Islands | BC | BC Greens | 39.2% | 10.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Surrey North | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 48.3% | 10.5% | 100% | Hold |
| Kamloops Centre | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 45.8% | 10.8% | 100% | Hold |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast | BC | BC NDP | 44.9% | 10.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Burnaby Centre | BC | BC NDP | 51.5% | 11.3% | 100% | Hold |
| Langford-Highlands | BC | BC NDP | 46.7% | 11.4% | 100% | Hold |
| Port Coquitlam | BC | BC NDP | 48.9% | 12.0% | 100% | Hold |
| Chilliwack-Cultus Lake | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 51.7% | 12.1% | 100% | Hold |
| Delta South | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 51.5% | 12.9% | 100% | Hold |
| Abbotsford-Mission | BC | Conservative Party of BC | 52.2% | 13.6% | 100% | Hold |
The race question
Can an opposition come apart and regroup in a single month—and what is left of it on October 24?
The NDP enters the campaign in a strong position, less because it has grown than because the right has split: Conservatives, CentreBC and OneBC are chasing the same voters, and MLAs are switching sides from one day to the next. Until nominations close, every riding held by a floor-crosser remains a fragile call.
How we got here
How we got here
In 2024, John Rustad’s Conservatives came within three seats of power: 44 against the NDP’s 47. Since then, 20 of those 44 MLAs have left the caucus at least once—to sit as independents, found OneBC, join CentreBC or cross to the NDP—and several have come back.
Kerry-Lynne Findlay, elected leader on May 30, 2026, resigned on September 20 after four months of departures. Two days earlier, eight former Conservatives led by Peter Milobar had taken over CentreBC.
What just changed
What just changed
SEP 22, 2026
Seven CentreBC MLAs rejoin the Conservatives — Elenore Sturko takes over CentreBC
Peter Milobar and six colleagues return to Lorne Doerkson’s Conservatives, as does independent Brennan Day. Elenore Sturko stays and becomes CentreBC leader; the party keeps a slate of centrist candidates after its president, Mike Wignall, disowned the deal.
Our read: Built in: the seven are projected as Conservatives, Day too; Sturko defends Surrey-Cloverdale for CentreBC with her personal vote.
SEP 22, 2026
Eby calls a snap election for October 24
The premier cites the trade war with the United States. Voting day falls one week after the October 17 municipal elections.
Our read: Built in: the forecast now targets October 24.
SEP 22, 2026
Brent Chapman crosses to OneBC
The Surrey South MLA, Findlay’s husband, leaves the Conservatives on dissolution day.
Our read: Built in: his personal vote now follows the OneBC label in Surrey South.
SEP 21, 2026
Lorne Doerkson brings five MLAs back
The interim leader readmits John Rustad, Trevor Halford, Claire Rattée, Scott McInnis and Linda Hepner, and opens unity talks with CentreBC.
Our read: Built in: these five seats are projected under the Conservative label.
What can still change the race
What can still change the race
- What CentreBC is worth without its MLAs: current polls predate their departure, and the next ones will settle it.
- Nominations filed with Elections BC: the model currently assumes every incumbent runs again under their current label.
- The first campaign polls that name CentreBC and OneBC in their questionnaires.