Riding profile

Kootenay-Monashee

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Kootenay-Monashee: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 47.0%
  • Con 36.9%
  • GP 11.6%
  • OneBC 2.9%
  • CentreBC 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereKootenay-Monashee 47.0%36.9%11.6%2.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +7.4 42.4% −5.5 9.9% +1.7 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kootenay-Monashee, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 47% vote share, against 37% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Steve Morissette

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
13.2 pts
Turnout
60.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steve Morissette Elected NDP — 52.0 —
Glen Byle Con — 38.9 —
Donovan Cavers GP — 9.1 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44