Riding profile

Surrey-Newton

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey-Newton: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
5.1
P(close race)
50%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 46.0%
  • Con 41.0%
  • OTH 4.7%
  • OneBC 3.1%
  • CentreBC 2.7%
  • GP 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con OTH OneBC
HereSurrey-Newton 46.0%41.0%4.7%3.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +6.5 42.4% −1.4 1.5% +3.2 3.4% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey-Newton, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 41% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jessie Sunner

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
8.2 pts
Turnout
50.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jessie Sunner Elected NDP — 51.2 —
Tegjot Bal Con — 43.0 —
Amrit Birring Joginder Singh Randhawa Japreet Lehal OTH — 5.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44