Riding profile

Surrey City Centre

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey City Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
73%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
91%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 43.0%
  • NDP 41.5%
  • GP 8.6%
  • OneBC 3.2%
  • CentreBC 2.6%
  • OTH 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereSurrey City Centre 43.0%41.5%8.6%3.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +0.6 39.5% +2.0 9.9% −1.4 3.4% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey City Centre, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 43% vote share, against 42% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Amna Shah

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
1.6 pts
Turnout
44.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.7 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amna Shah Elected NDP — 46.7 —
Zeeshan Wahla Con — 45.1 —
Colin Boyd GP — 6.1 —
Ryan Abbott Saeed Naguib OTH — 2.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44