Riding profile

Surrey North

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey North: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 48.3%
  • NDP 37.8%
  • GP 6.6%
  • OneBC 3.5%
  • CentreBC 3.0%
  • OTH 0.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereSurrey North 48.3%37.8%6.6%3.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +5.9 39.5% −1.8 9.9% −3.3 3.4% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey North, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 48% vote share, against 38% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mandeep Dhaliwal

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
7.4 pts
Turnout
49.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mandeep Dhaliwal Elected Con — 50.7 —
Rachna Singh NDP — 43.3 —
Sim Sandhu GP — 4.2 —
Kiran Hundal Hobby Nijjar OTH — 1.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44