Riding profile

Burnaby-New Westminster

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Burnaby-New Westminster: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 55.4%
  • Con 33.0%
  • OTH 4.2%
  • OneBC 2.7%
  • GP 2.5%
  • CentreBC 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con OTH OneBC
HereBurnaby-New Westminster 55.4%33.0%4.2%2.7%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +15.9 42.4% −9.4 1.5% +2.7 3.4% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Burnaby-New Westminster, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 55% vote share, against 33% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Raj Chouhan

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
25.3 pts
Turnout
51.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.9 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Raj Chouhan Elected NDP — 60.0 —
Deepak Suri Con — 34.7 —
Daniel Kofi Ampong OTH — 5.3 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44