Riding profile

Delta North

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Delta North: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.3
P(close race)
4%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 47.3%
  • Con 38.0%
  • GP 8.6%
  • OneBC 3.0%
  • CentreBC 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereDelta North 47.3%38.0%8.6%3.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +7.8 42.4% −4.4 9.9% −1.3 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Delta North, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 47% vote share, against 38% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ravi Kahlon

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
12.5 pts
Turnout
57.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ravi Kahlon Elected NDP — 52.7 —
Raj Veauli Con — 40.2 —
Nick Dickinson-Wilde GP — 6.2 —
Manqoosh Khan OTH — 0.8 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44