Riding profile

Burnaby South-Metrotown

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Burnaby South-Metrotown: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 44.2%
  • Con 39.6%
  • GP 8.7%
  • OneBC 3.1%
  • CentreBC 2.7%
  • OTH 1.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereBurnaby South-Metrotown 44.2%39.6%8.7%3.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +4.7 42.4% −2.8 9.9% −1.2 3.4% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Burnaby South-Metrotown, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 44% vote share, against 40% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Paul Choi

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
7.7 pts
Turnout
48.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.0 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Paul Choi Elected NDP — 49.3 —
Han Lee Con — 41.6 —
Carrie McLaren GP — 6.3 —
Meiling Chia OTH — — —
MichaelAngelo Abc RobinHood OTH — — —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44