Riding profile

Burnaby North

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Burnaby North: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.1
P(close race)
19%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 48.0%
  • Con 40.9%
  • OneBC 3.1%
  • CentreBC 2.8%
  • OTH 2.6%
  • GP 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con OneBC CentreBC
HereBurnaby North 48.0%40.9%3.1%2.8%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +8.5 42.4% −1.5 3.4% −0.3 3.2% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Burnaby North, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 48% vote share, against 41% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Janet Routledge

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
10.3 pts
Turnout
53.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Janet Routledge Elected NDP — 53.3 —
Michael Wu Con — 43.0 —
Martin Kendell OTH — 3.7 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44