Riding profile

Vancouver-Renfrew

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-Renfrew: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 58.1%
  • Con 28.6%
  • GP 8.6%
  • OneBC 2.5%
  • CentreBC 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereVancouver-Renfrew 58.1%28.6%8.6%2.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +18.6 42.4% −13.8 9.9% −1.3 3.4% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-Renfrew, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 58% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Adrian Dix

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
32.6 pts
Turnout
48.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.0 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adrian Dix Elected NDP — 63.2 —
Tom Ikonomou Con — 30.7 —
Lawrence Taylor GP — 6.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44