Riding profile

Kelowna Centre

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Kelowna Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
90%
Mean margin (pts)
3.8
P(close race)
72%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 43.2%
  • NDP 39.7%
  • GP 7.2%
  • CentreBC 4.2%
  • OneBC 3.3%
  • OTH 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP CentreBC
HereKelowna Centre 43.2%39.7%7.2%4.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +0.8 39.5% +0.2 9.9% −2.8 3.2% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kelowna Centre, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 43% vote share, against 40% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kristina Loewen

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
0.2 pts
Turnout
56.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kristina Loewen Elected Con — 42.9 —
Loyal Wooldridge NDP — 42.7 —
Michael Humer OTH — 10.2 —
Bryce Tippe GP — 4.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44