Riding profile

Boundary-Similkameen

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Boundary-Similkameen: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 46.0%
  • NDP 37.1%
  • GP 8.3%
  • OneBC 3.4%
  • CentreBC 3.2%
  • OTH 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereBoundary-Similkameen 46.0%37.1%8.3%3.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +3.6 39.5% −2.4 9.9% −1.6 3.4%

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Boundary-Similkameen, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 46% vote share, against 37% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Donegal Wilson

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
5.8 pts
Turnout
62.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Donegal Wilson Elected Con — 48.4 —
Roly Russell NDP — 42.6 —
Kevin Eastwood GP — 5.9 —
Sean Taylor OTH — 3.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44