Riding profile

Penticton-Summerland

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Penticton-Summerland: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
95%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
54%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 43.1%
  • NDP 38.4%
  • GP 8.4%
  • CentreBC 4.2%
  • OneBC 3.4%
  • OTH 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP CentreBC
HerePenticton-Summerland 43.1%38.4%8.4%4.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +0.7 39.5% −1.1 9.9% −1.5 3.2% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Penticton-Summerland, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 43% vote share, against 38% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Amelia Boultbee

Sits with NDP

Elected as Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
1.1 pts
Turnout
61.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.7 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Amelia Boultbee Elected Con — 41.4 —
Tina Lee NDP — 40.2 —
Bradley Bartsch GP — 5.2 —
Anna Paddon OTH — — —
Roger Harrington OTH — — —
Tracy St Claire OTH — — —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44