Riding profile

Kelowna-Mission

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Kelowna-Mission: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 52.5%
  • NDP 29.1%
  • GP 7.9%
  • CentreBC 4.3%
  • OneBC 3.8%
  • OTH 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP CentreBC
HereKelowna-Mission 52.5%29.1%7.9%4.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +10.1 39.5% −10.5 9.9% −2.1 3.2% +1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kelowna-Mission, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 53% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gavin Dew

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
18.9 pts
Turnout
60.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.6 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gavin Dew Elected Con — 51.5 —
Harpreet Badohal NDP — 32.6 —
Ashley Ramsay OTH — 11.0 —
Billy Young GP — 4.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44