Riding profile

Vancouver-Strathcona

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-Strathcona: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
47.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 64.0%
  • GP 16.5%
  • Con 15.3%
  • OneBC 1.8%
  • CentreBC 1.7%
  • OTH 0.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP GP Con OneBC
HereVancouver-Strathcona 64.0%16.5%15.3%1.8%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +24.4 9.9% +6.5 42.4% −27.1 3.4% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-Strathcona, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 51-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 64% vote share, against 16% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
50.5 pts
Turnout
51.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.3 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joan Phillip Elected NDP — 67.6 —
Scott Muller Con — 17.1 —
Simon de Weerdt GP — 13.6 —
Kimball Cariou OTH — 1.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44