Riding profile

Vancouver-Kensington

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-Kensington: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
26.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 55.5%
  • Con 29.3%
  • GP 10.0%
  • CentreBC 2.6%
  • OneBC 2.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP CentreBC
HereVancouver-Kensington 55.5%29.3%10.0%2.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +16.0 42.4% −13.1 9.9% +0.1 3.2% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-Kensington, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 56% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mable Elmore

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
29.4 pts
Turnout
51.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mable Elmore Elected NDP — 60.9 —
Syed Mohsin Con — 31.5 —
Amy Fox GP — 7.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44