Riding profile

Vancouver-Fraserview

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-Fraserview: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
17.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 51.5%
  • Con 34.2%
  • GP 8.6%
  • CentreBC 2.9%
  • OneBC 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP CentreBC
HereVancouver-Fraserview 51.5%34.2%8.6%2.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +11.9 42.4% −8.2 9.9% −1.4 3.2% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-Fraserview, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 51% vote share, against 34% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

George Chow

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
20.6 pts
Turnout
52.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.3 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
George Chow Elected NDP — 57.2 —
Jag S. Sanghera Con — 36.6 —
Francoise Raunet GP — 6.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44