Riding profile

Vancouver-Hastings

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-Hastings: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 59.7%
  • Con 22.5%
  • GP 13.5%
  • OneBC 2.2%
  • CentreBC 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereVancouver-Hastings 59.7%22.5%13.5%2.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +20.2 42.4% −19.9 9.9% +3.5 3.4% −1.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-Hastings, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 60% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Niki Sharma

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
39.9 pts
Turnout
54.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.6 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Niki Sharma Elected NDP — 64.2 —
Jacob Burdge Con — 24.3 —
Bridget Burns GP — 10.8 —
Zsolt Kiss OTH — 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44