Riding profile

Vancouver-Yaletown

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-Yaletown: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
91%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 43.7%
  • Con 40.5%
  • GP 9.2%
  • CentreBC 3.5%
  • OneBC 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP CentreBC
HereVancouver-Yaletown 43.7%40.5%9.2%3.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +4.1 42.4% −1.9 9.9% −0.8 3.2% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-Yaletown, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 44% vote share, against 40% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Terry Yung

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
6.4 pts
Turnout
50.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.0 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Terry Yung Elected NDP — 49.8 —
Melissa De Genova Con — 43.4 —
Dana-Lyn Mackenzie GP — 6.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44