Riding profile

Vancouver-West End

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Vancouver-West End: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
33.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 58.4%
  • Con 25.4%
  • GP 11.7%
  • OneBC 2.3%
  • CentreBC 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereVancouver-West End 58.4%25.4%11.7%2.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +18.8 42.4% −17.0 9.9% +1.7 3.4% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Vancouver-West End, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 36-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 58% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Spencer Chandra Herbert

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
35.8 pts
Turnout
53.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.8 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Spencer Chandra Herbert Elected NDP — 63.0 —
Jon Ellacott Con — 27.2 —
Eoin O'Dwyer GP — 9.1 —
Carl Turnbull OTH — 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44