Riding profile
Vancouver-South Granville
The question
Vancouver-South Granville: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 36.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Con | GP | CentreBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVancouver-South Granville | 59.2% | 22.9% | 13.2% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 39.5% +19.6 | 42.4% −19.5 | 9.9% +3.3 | 3.2% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Vancouver-South Granville, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 59% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Brenda Bailey
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · BC 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenda Bailey Elected | NDP | — | 64.3 | — |
| Aron Lageri | Con | — | 25.0 | — |
| Adam Hawk | GP | — | 10.7 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
bc_44