Riding profile

Surrey-Guildford

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey-Guildford: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
3.3
P(close race)
79%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 44.7%
  • NDP 41.6%
  • GP 6.8%
  • OneBC 3.3%
  • CentreBC 2.8%
  • OTH 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereSurrey-Guildford 44.7%41.6%6.8%3.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +2.3 39.5% +2.1 9.9% −3.2 3.4% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey-Guildford, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Garry Begg

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
0.1 pts
Turnout
50.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Garry Begg Elected NDP — 46.9 —
Honveer Singh Randhawa Con — 46.8 —
Manjeet Singh Sahota GP — 4.3 —
Kabir Qurban OTH — 1.9 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44