Riding profile

Coquitlam-Maillardville

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Coquitlam-Maillardville: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.1
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 46.7%
  • Con 37.6%
  • GP 8.8%
  • OneBC 3.0%
  • CentreBC 2.7%
  • OTH 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereCoquitlam-Maillardville 46.7%37.6%8.8%3.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +7.2 42.4% −4.8 9.9% −1.1 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Coquitlam-Maillardville, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 47% vote share, against 38% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jennifer Blatherwick

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
12.2 pts
Turnout
56.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jennifer Blatherwick Elected NDP — 51.8 —
Hamed Najafi Con — 39.6 —
Nicola Spurling GP — 6.3 —
Ken Holowanky OTH — 2.3 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44