Riding profile

Port Coquitlam

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Port Coquitlam: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 48.9%
  • Con 36.9%
  • GP 8.9%
  • OneBC 2.9%
  • CentreBC 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HerePort Coquitlam 48.9%36.9%8.9%2.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +9.3 42.4% −5.5 9.9% −1.0 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Port Coquitlam, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 37% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Mike Farnworth

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
15.1 pts
Turnout
57.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Mike Farnworth Elected NDP — 53.9 —
Keenan Adams Con — 38.8 —
Adam Bremner-Akins GP — 6.4 —
Lewis Dahlby OTH — 0.9 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44