Riding profile

Surrey-Serpentine River

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey-Serpentine River: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 47.2%
  • NDP 41.9%
  • OneBC 3.5%
  • CentreBC 3.4%
  • GP 2.4%
  • OTH 1.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereSurrey-Serpentine River 47.2%41.9%3.5%3.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +4.8 39.5% +2.3 3.4% 3.2% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey-Serpentine River, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 47% vote share, against 42% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Linda Hepner

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
2.2 pts
Turnout
54.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Linda Hepner Elected Con — 49.7 —
Baltej Singh Dhillon NDP — 47.5 —
Jim McMurtry OTH — 2.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44