Riding profile

Surrey South

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey South: will OneBC lose this seat to Con?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
18.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 49.4%
  • NDP 31.3%
  • OneBC 13.4%
  • CentreBC 3.8%
  • GP 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereSurrey South 49.4%31.3%13.4%3.8%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +7.0 39.5% −8.3 3.4% +10.0 3.2% +0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey South, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 49% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Brent Chapman

Sits with OneBC

Elected as Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
17.7 pts
Turnout
56.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.5 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Brent Chapman Elected Con — 58.8 —
Haroon Ghaffar NDP — 41.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44