Riding profile

Surrey-White Rock

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey-White Rock: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 49.8%
  • NDP 39.7%
  • OneBC 3.6%
  • CentreBC 3.3%
  • GP 2.4%
  • OTH 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereSurrey-White Rock 49.8%39.7%3.6%3.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +7.4 39.5% +0.1 3.4% +0.1 3.2% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey-White Rock, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 50% vote share, against 40% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Trevor Halford

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
7.0 pts
Turnout
61.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Trevor Halford Elected Con — 52.3 —
Darryl Walker NDP — 45.3 —
Damyn Tassie OTH — 2.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44