Riding profile

Surrey-Panorama

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey-Panorama: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
96%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
56%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 47.2%
  • NDP 42.6%
  • OneBC 3.4%
  • CentreBC 3.2%
  • GP 2.4%
  • OTH 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereSurrey-Panorama 47.2%42.6%3.4%3.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +4.8 39.5% +3.0 3.4% 3.2% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey-Panorama, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 47% vote share, against 43% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Bryan Tepper

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
1.5 pts
Turnout
53.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bryan Tepper Elected Con — 49.6 —
Jinny Sims NDP — 48.1 —
Paramjit Rai OTH — 2.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44