Riding profile

Surrey-Cloverdale

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Surrey-Cloverdale: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
45%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 41.1%
  • NDP 35.8%
  • CentreBC 13.0%
  • GP 7.0%
  • OneBC 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP CentreBC GP
HereSurrey-Cloverdale 41.1%35.8%13.0%7.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% −1.3 39.5% −3.7 3.2% +9.8 9.9% −3.0

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Surrey-Cloverdale, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 41% vote share, against 36% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Elenore Sturko

Sits with CentreBC

Elected as Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
2.8 pts
Turnout
55.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Elenore Sturko Elected Con — 48.3 —
Mike Starchuk NDP — 45.5 —
Pat McCutcheon GP — 5.4 —
Judy Meilleur OTH — 0.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44