Riding profile

Victoria-Beacon Hill

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

Victoria-Beacon Hill: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
24%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 42.6%
  • GP 36.4%
  • Con 17.2%
  • OneBC 1.9%
  • CentreBC 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP GP Con OneBC
HereVictoria-Beacon Hill 42.6%36.4%17.2%1.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +3.1 9.9% +26.5 42.4% −25.2 3.4% −1.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Victoria-Beacon Hill, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 36% for the Green Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Grace Lore

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
13.8 pts
Turnout
65.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.7 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Grace Lore Elected NDP — 47.4 —
Sonia Furstenau GP — 33.5 —
Tim Thielmann Con — 19.1 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44