Riding profile

Victoria-Swan Lake

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

Victoria-Swan Lake: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
25.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 51.8%
  • GP 26.1%
  • Con 18.4%
  • OneBC 2.0%
  • CentreBC 1.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP GP Con OneBC
HereVictoria-Swan Lake 51.8%26.1%18.4%2.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +12.2 9.9% +16.2 42.4% −24.0 3.4% −1.4

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Victoria-Swan Lake, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 33-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 52% vote share, against 26% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Nina Krieger

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
32.9 pts
Turnout
62.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Nina Krieger Elected NDP — 56.0 —
Christina Winter GP — 23.2 —
Tim Taylor Con — 20.2 —
Robert Crooks OTH — 0.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44