Riding profile
Saanich South
The question
Saanich South: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Con | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSaanich South | 44.5% | 30.3% | 20.2% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 39.5% +4.9 | 42.4% −12.1 | 9.9% +10.3 | 3.4% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Saanich South, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 44% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lana Popham
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · BC 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lana Popham Elected | NDP | — | 49.8 | — |
| Adam Kubel | Con | — | 32.5 | — |
| Ned Taylor | GP | — | 17.8 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
bc_44