Riding profile

Abbotsford-Mission

Provincial riding — BC · Fraser Valley

The question

Abbotsford-Mission: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 52.2%
  • NDP 38.6%
  • OneBC 3.7%
  • CentreBC 3.0%
  • GP 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereAbbotsford-Mission 52.2%38.6%3.7%3.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +9.8 39.5% −0.9 3.4% +0.3 3.2% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Abbotsford-Mission, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 52% vote share, against 39% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
10.8 pts
Turnout
57.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.9 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Reann Gasper Elected Con — 55.4 —
Pam Alexis NDP — 44.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44