Riding profile
Abbotsford South
The question
Abbotsford South: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Current forecast
Con
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Con | NDP | OneBC | CentreBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAbbotsford South | 58.5% | 29.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 42.4% +16.1 | 39.5% −10.1 | 3.4% +0.6 | 3.2% +0.4 |
Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Abbotsford South, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 58% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bruce Banman
Sits with Con
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · BC 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Banman Elected | Con | — | 61.6 | — |
| Sarah Kooner | NDP | — | 35.2 | — |
| Amandeep Singh | OTH | — | 3.2 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
bc_44