Riding profile

Abbotsford West

Provincial riding — BC · Fraser Valley

The question

Abbotsford West: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
24.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 55.4%
  • NDP 31.1%
  • OneBC 3.9%
  • CentreBC 3.6%
  • OTH 3.6%
  • GP 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereAbbotsford West 55.4%31.1%3.9%3.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +13.0 39.5% −8.4 3.4% +0.4 3.2% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Abbotsford West, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 55% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Korky Neufeld

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
21.5 pts
Turnout
52.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.8 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Korky Neufeld Elected Con — 58.4 —
Graeme Hutchison NDP — 36.9 —
James Davison OTH — 4.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44