Riding profile

Juan de Fuca-Malahat

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

Juan de Fuca-Malahat: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
85%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
84%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 36.2%
  • NDP 33.6%
  • GP 25.6%
  • OneBC 2.9%
  • CentreBC 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereJuan de Fuca-Malahat 36.2%33.6%25.6%2.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% −6.2 39.5% −5.9 9.9% +15.6 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Juan de Fuca-Malahat, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 36% vote share, against 34% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Dana Lajeunesse

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
0.6 pts
Turnout
64.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.4 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dana Lajeunesse Elected NDP — 38.8 —
Marina Sapozhnikov Con — 38.2 —
David Evans GP — 23.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44