Riding profile
Cowichan Valley
The question
Cowichan Valley: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Con
Toss-up
- Probability
- 54%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.0
- P(close race)
- 94%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Con | NDP | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCowichan Valley | 35.9% | 35.7% | 22.6% | 2.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 42.4% −6.5 | 39.5% −3.8 | 9.9% +12.6 | 3.4% −0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Cowichan Valley, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 36% vote share, against 36% for the NDP, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Debra Toporowski
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · BC 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debra Toporowski Elected | NDP | — | 40.5 | — |
| John Koury | Con | — | 37.6 | — |
| Cammy Lockwood | GP | — | 19.8 | — |
| Eden Haythornthwaite | OTH | — | — | — |
| Jon Coleman | OTH | — | — | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
bc_44