Riding profile

Ladysmith-Oceanside

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

Ladysmith-Oceanside: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

NDP

Toss-up

Probability
88%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
72%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 41.8%
  • Con 38.5%
  • GP 10.6%
  • CentreBC 3.4%
  • OneBC 3.2%
  • OTH 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP CentreBC
HereLadysmith-Oceanside 41.8%38.5%10.6%3.4%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +2.2 42.4% −3.9 9.9% +0.6 3.2% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Ladysmith-Oceanside, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 42% vote share, against 38% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Stephanie Higginson

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
6.0 pts
Turnout
69.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Stephanie Higginson Elected NDP — 41.5 —
Brett Fee Con — 35.5 —
Adam Walker OTH — 16.3 —
Laura Ferreira GP — 6.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44