Riding profile

Mid Island-Pacific Rim

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

Mid Island-Pacific Rim: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Competitive

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
6.2
P(close race)
32%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 43.5%
  • Con 37.3%
  • GP 14.3%
  • OneBC 3.0%
  • CentreBC 2.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereMid Island-Pacific Rim 43.5%37.3%14.3%3.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +3.9 42.4% −5.1 9.9% +4.3 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mid Island-Pacific Rim, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 43% vote share, against 37% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Josie Osborne

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
9.3 pts
Turnout
60.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Josie Osborne Elected NDP — 48.7 —
Adam Hayduk Con — 39.5 —
Ross Reid GP — 11.8 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44