Riding profile

Nanaimo-Lantzville

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

Nanaimo-Lantzville: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
5%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 46.1%
  • Con 37.1%
  • GP 11.1%
  • OneBC 2.9%
  • CentreBC 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con GP OneBC
HereNanaimo-Lantzville 46.1%37.1%11.1%2.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +6.6 42.4% −5.3 9.9% +1.2 3.4% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nanaimo-Lantzville, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 46% vote share, against 37% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

George Anderson

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
12.2 pts
Turnout
66.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
George Anderson Elected NDP — 51.8 —
Gwen O'Mahony Con — 39.5 —
Lia Versaevel GP — 8.7 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44