Riding profile
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island
The question
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island: a safe seat for the NDP?
Current forecast
NDP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| NDP | Con | GP | OneBC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNanaimo-Gabriola Island | 47.6% | 32.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 39.5% +8.0 | 42.4% −9.8 | 9.9% +5.1 | 3.4% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 48% vote share, against 33% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sheila Malcolmson
Sits with NDP
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · BC 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheila Malcolmson Elected | NDP | — | 52.8 | — |
| Dale Parker | Con | — | 34.6 | — |
| Shirley Lambrecht | GP | — | 12.6 | — |
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
bc_44