Riding profile

North Island

Provincial riding — BC · Vancouver Island & Coast

The question

North Island: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
5.3
P(close race)
46%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 44.6%
  • NDP 39.3%
  • GP 10.4%
  • OneBC 3.3%
  • CentreBC 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereNorth Island 44.6%39.3%10.4%3.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +2.2 39.5% −0.2 9.9% +0.4 3.4% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

North Island, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 45% vote share, against 39% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Anna Kindy

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
2.1 pts
Turnout
62.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.1 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna Kindy Elected Con — 47.1 —
Michele Babchuk NDP — 44.9 —
Nic Dedeluk GP — 8.0 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44