Riding profile

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky: a safe seat for the Green Party?

Current forecast

GP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
12%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • GP 40.1%
  • Con 33.1%
  • NDP 20.8%
  • CentreBC 3.1%
  • OneBC 2.7%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

GP Con NDP CentreBC
HereWest Vancouver-Sea to Sky 40.1%33.1%20.8%3.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 9.9% +30.2 42.4% −9.2 39.5% −18.7 3.2% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Green Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Green Party ahead at 40% vote share, against 33% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jeremy Valeriote

Sits with GP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
GP
Margin
2.5 pts
Turnout
62.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+4.5 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jeremy Valeriote Elected GP — 38.1 —
Yuri Fulmer Con — 35.6 —
Jen Ford NDP — 26.3 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44