Riding profile

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows

Provincial riding — BC · Fraser Valley

The question

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows: a safe seat for the NDP?

Current forecast

NDP

Competitive

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
6.6
P(close race)
26%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • NDP 48.9%
  • Con 42.4%
  • OneBC 3.2%
  • CentreBC 3.1%
  • GP 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

NDP Con OneBC CentreBC
HereMaple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 48.9%42.4%3.2%3.1%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 39.5% +9.4 42.4% 3.4% −0.2 3.2% −0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the NDP ahead at 49% vote share, against 42% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Lisa Beare

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
9.8 pts
Turnout
59.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lisa Beare Elected NDP — 54.9 —
Mike Morden Con — 45.1 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44