Riding profile

Richmond-Steveston

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Richmond-Steveston: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Con

Toss-up

Probability
67%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
92%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 42.6%
  • NDP 41.5%
  • GP 6.3%
  • CentreBC 4.0%
  • OneBC 3.3%
  • OTH 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP CentreBC
HereRichmond-Steveston 42.6%41.5%6.3%4.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +0.2 39.5% +1.9 9.9% −3.7 3.2% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Richmond-Steveston, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the NDP in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 43% vote share, against 41% for the NDP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Kelly Greene

Sits with NDP

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
NDP
Margin
2.1 pts
Turnout
59.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.3 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kelly Greene Elected NDP — 44.3 —
Michelle Mollineaux Con — 42.2 —
Jackie Lee OTH — 10.1 —
Elodie Vaudandaine GP — 3.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44