Riding profile

Richmond Centre

Provincial riding — BC · Metro Vancouver

The question

Richmond Centre: will IND lose this seat to Con?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 44.2%
  • NDP 27.9%
  • OTH 19.2%
  • CentreBC 3.3%
  • OneBC 3.2%
  • GP 2.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OTH CentreBC
HereRichmond Centre 44.2%27.9%19.2%3.3%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +1.8 39.5% −11.6 1.5% +17.7 3.2% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Richmond Centre, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Hon Chan

Sits with IND

Elected as Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
15.2 pts
Turnout
49.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.0 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Hon Chan Elected Con — 52.0 —
Henry Yao NDP — 36.8 —
Dickens Cheung Sunny Ho Wendy Yuan OTH — 11.2 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44